black cherry (Prunus serotina)
Model Reliability: Medium
| GCM SCENARIO | % Area Occ | Ave IV | Sum IV | Future/Current IV |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | 38.8 | 5.3 | 60959 | N/A |
| RFimp | 49.5 | 3.6 | 52973 | 0.87 |
| CCSM45 | 73.3 | 3.4 | 73851 | 1.39 |
| CCSM85 | 78.1 | 3.5 | 80436 | 1.52 |
| GFDL45 | 78.8 | 3.7 | 86423 | 1.63 |
| GFDL85 | 81.6 | 3.5 | 84935 | 1.6 |
| HAD45 | 77.7 | 3.5 | 80420 | 1.52 |
| HAD85 | 79 | 3.3 | 77717 | 1.47 |
| GCM45 | 79.8 | 3.4 | 80266 | 1.52 |
| GCM85 | 82.2 | 3.4 | 81062 | 1.53 |
Regional Summary Tree Tables
Summaries for tree species are available for a variety of geographies, in both PDF and Excel format. These summaries are based on Version 4 of the Climate Change Tree Atlas
Interpretation Guide
Black cherry is a widely distributed (34.2% of area, second only to red maple in total area occupied), dense, and low IV species, currently abundant throughout a large portion of the eastern US, but especially in western Pennsylvania. The model shows a small increase in habitat by century's end (this is somewhat contrary to the decrease in habitat according to the GFDL A1Fi model of our earlier work), but poor adaptability. Nonetheless, the medium reliable model shown here, along with its high abundance, yields an overall rating for capability of the species is good. SHIFT reports good infill as well as some migration outside its current range.
Family: Rosaceae
Guild: opportunistic, fast-growing understory tolerant
Functional Lifeform: medium-size to large deciduous tree
| 3 | -1.56 |
| -0.32 |  |
MODFACs
What traits will impact black cherry's ability to adapt to climate change, and in what way?:
Primary Positive Traits
Drought Environment habitat specificity
Primary Negative Traits
Insect pests Fire topkill Shade tolerance