cherrybark oak; swamp red oak (Quercus pagoda)
Model Reliability: Medium
| GCM SCENARIO | % Area Occ | Ave IV | Sum IV | Future/Current IV |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | 6.3 | 4.2 | 7730 | N/A |
| RFimp | 8.4 | 2.4 | 5917 | 0.77 |
| CCSM45 | 18.5 | 2.2 | 12006 | 2.03 |
| CCSM85 | 26.5 | 2.2 | 17361 | 2.93 |
| GFDL45 | 24.4 | 2.2 | 15432 | 2.61 |
| GFDL85 | 33.1 | 2.1 | 20718 | 3.5 |
| HAD45 | 23.9 | 2.4 | 16568 | 2.8 |
| HAD85 | 27.6 | 2.4 | 19109 | 3.23 |
| GCM45 | 27.1 | 1.8 | 14669 | 2.48 |
| GCM85 | 35.3 | 1.8 | 19063 | 3.22 |
Regional Summary Tree Tables
Summaries for tree species are available for a variety of geographies, in both PDF and Excel format. These summaries are based on Version 4 of the Climate Change Tree Atlas
Interpretation Guide
Cherrybark oak is a narrowly distributed (5.2% of area), sparse, low IV but common species, primarily found across the central southern portion of the US. Its model reliability is medium which suggests a large increase in suitable habitat (but still classed as 'No change' because it covers only 5.2% of the region) including an expansion both in the central US and along the eastern seaboard. However, the SHIFT model limits the expansions from being naturally colonized within 100 years, though some expansion has possibility. It has medium adaptability and an overall capability rating of fair. SHIFT suggests it to be a good infill species.
Family: Fagaceae
Guild: persistent, large-seeded, advance growthdependent
Functional Lifeform: large deciduous tree
| 3.9 | -0.51 |
| 0.06 |  |
MODFACs
What traits will impact cherrybark oak; swamp red oak's ability to adapt to climate change, and in what way?:
Primary Positive Traits
Primary Negative Traits
Insect pests Fire topkill