Title:

County-level land-use projections for the conterminous United States, 2020-2070, used in the 2020 RPA Assessment

Author(s):

Mihiar, Christopher M.; Lewis, David J.; Coulston, John W.

Publication Year:

2023

How to Cite:

These data were collected using funding from the U.S. Government and can be used without additional permissions or fees. If you use these data in a publication, presentation, or other research product please use the following citation:

Mihiar, Christopher M.; Lewis, David J.; Coulston, John W. 2023. County-level land-use projections for the conterminous United States, 2020-2070, used in the 2020 RPA Assessment. Fort Collins, CO: Forest Service Research Data Archive. https://doi.org/10.2737/RDS-2023-0026

Abstract:

Gross land-use change is projected from 2020-2070 at the county level for the conterminous United States (CONUS) based on an empirical econometric model of observed land-use transitions over the 2001-2012 time period. Land-use transition probability is modeled as a function of starting use, land quality, climate, population, and income. Modeled use categories include urban developed, forest, crop, pasture, and range land. Future projections of land-use are made under alternative scenarios of climate and socio-economic conditions as defined in the 2020 USDA Forest Service, Resources Planning Act (RPA) Assessment. Data are provided for each decade as well as 2012-2020 (calibration period). Net change in land-use in each category can be calculated directly from the gross change tables found in this data publication.

Keywords:

biota; Climate change; Human response; Environment and People; Impact of people on environment; Natural Resource Management & Use; Economics; Landscape management; environmental and resource economics; climate econometrics; land-use change; RPA Assessment; Resources Planning Act Assessment; conterminous United States; contiguous United States; CONUS

Related publications:

• Mihiar, Christopher M.; Lewis, David J. 2023. An empirical analysis of US land-use change under multiple climate change scenarios. Journal of the Agricultural and Applied Economics Association. https://doi.org/10.1002/jaa2.82
• Riitters, Kurt; Coulston, John W.; Mihiar, Christopher M.; Brooks, Evan B.; Greenfield, Eric J.; Nelson, Mark D.; Domke, Grant M.; Mockrin, Miranda; Lewis, David J.; Nowak, David J. 2023. Chapter 4: Land Resources. 4-1 - 4-37. https://doi.org/10.2737/WO-GTR-102-Chap4 In: U.S. Department of Agriculture, Forest Service. 2023. Future of America’s Forest and Rangelands: Forest Service 2020 Resources Planning Act Assessment. General Technical Report. WO-102. Washington, DC: 348 p. https://doi.org/10.2737/WO-GTR-102

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