Title:

SHIFT: migration potential of suitable habitats for eastern United States trees

Author(s):

Prasad, Anantha M.; Peters, Matthew P.; Matthews, Stephen N.; Iverson, Louis R.

Publication Year:

2024

How to Cite:

These data were collected using funding from the U.S. Government and can be used without additional permissions or fees. If you use these data in a publication, presentation, or other research product please use the following citation:

Prasad, Anantha M.; Peters, Matthew P.; Matthews, Stephen N; Iverson, Louis R. 2024. SHIFT: migration potential of suitable habitats for eastern United States trees. Fort Collins, CO: Forest Service Research Data Archive. https://doi.org/10.2737/RDS-2024-0038

Abstract:

This data publication includes colonization likelihoods of modeled habitat suitability for 121 eastern United States trees species under 1981-2010 climate conditions and projected future conditions (2070-2099) created using a statistical modeling approach that correlates mean importance values (i.e., relative abundance) to environmental data. Migration potential is simulated by computing colonization likelihoods using current species relative abundance, historical migration rates, current habitat fragmentation, and a search distance function to simulate long distance migration. End of century migration potential is achieved both inside and beyond the current range by matching future projections of habitat suitability from the DISTRIB-II model based on the length of time until reproductive maturity of individual tree species. End of century colonization likelihoods were intersected with future projections of DISTRIB-II habitat suitability models under representative concentration pathways (RCPs) 4.5 and 8.5 using the average habitat quality among three general circulation model (GCM) scenarios: NCAR Community Climate System Model (CCSM4), NOAA Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory Coupled Model 3 (GFDL CM3), and Met Office Hadley Global Environment Model 2 - Earth System (HadGEM2 - ES). The resulting raster data provide an estimate of individual species migration potential (occupied, none, low, medium, high) by the end of the century based on modeled habitat suitability (low, medium, high).

Keywords:

climatologyMeteorologyAtmosphere; Climate change; Climatology; colonization likelihood; DISTRIB-II; importance value; migration potential; modeled niche; potential suitable habitat; SHIFT; tree species; Climate Change Atlas; eastern United States; Alabama; Arkansas; Connecticut; Delaware; District of Columbia; Florida; Georgia; Illinois; Indiana; Iowa; Kansas; Kentucky; Louisiana; Maine; Maryland; Massachusetts; Michigan; Minnesota; Mississippi; Missouri; Nebraska; New Hampshire; New Jersey; New York; North Carolina; North Dakota; Ohio; Oklahoma; Pennsylvania; Rhode Island; South Carolina; South Dakota; Tennessee; Texas; Vermont; Virginia; West Virginia; Wisconsin

Related publications:

• Iverson, Louis R.; Prasad, Anantha M.; Matthews, Stephen N.; Peters, Matthew P. 2008. Estimating potential habitat for 134 eastern US tree species under six climate scenarios. Forest Ecology and Management. 254(3): 390-406. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.foreco.2007.07.023 https://research.fs.usda.gov/treesearch/13412
• Iverson, Louis R. ; Prasad, Anantha M.; Peters, Matthew P.; Matthews, Stephen N. 2019. Facilitating adaptive forest management under climate change: A spatially specific synthesis of 125 species for habitat changes and assisted migration over the eastern United States. Forests. 10(11): 989. https://doi.org/10.3390/f10110989 https://research.fs.usda.gov/treesearch/59105
• Peters, Matthew P.; Iverson, Louis R.; Prasad, Anantha M.; Matthews, Stephen N. 2019. Utilizing the density of inventory samples to define a hybrid lattice for species distribution models: DISTRIB-II for 135 eastern U.S. trees. Ecology and Evolution. 9(15): 8876-8899. https://doi.org/10.1002/ece3.5445 https://research.fs.usda.gov/treesearch/58353
• More (5 total)

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