Title:

Future projections of U.S. forest succession classes on federal lands

Author(s):

Walker, David M.; Costanza, Jennifer K.; Potter, Kevin M.; Koch, Frank H.; Gray, Andrew N.; Coulston, John W.

Publication Year:

2025

How to Cite:

These data were collected using funding from the U.S. Government and can be used without additional permissions or fees. If you use these data in a publication, presentation, or other research product please use the following citation:

Walker, David M.; Costanza, Jennifer K.; Potter, Kevin M.; Koch, Frank H.; Gray, Andrew N.; Coulston, John W. 2025. Future projections of U.S. forest succession classes on federal lands. Fort Collins, CO: Forest Service Research Data Archive. https://doi.org/10.2727/RDS-2025-0039

Abstract:

Changing climate conditions, wildfires, and tree harvesting could affect the amount of mature and old-growth forests in the United States. We used a stochastic modeling system to project future areal extents of mature and old-growth forests on National Forest System (NFS) and Bureau of Land Management (BLM) land across the conterminous United States, and to assess threats to these forests under a variety of socioeconomic and climate futures. The data included in this package contain estimates and projections, from 2020 to 2070, of forest area and volume by forest successional class (old growth, mature, and younger) for 20 futures, which are combinations of four socioeconomic scenarios and five global climate models. Estimates of area, tree volume, fire mortality, and harvest removals are provided for each Resources Planning Act (RPA) region. Additionally, estimates of current and future area of mature and old-growth by Forest Inventory and Analysis (FIA) forest type group are included. For each of the 20 futures in the regional and forest type group summaries, 100 future realizations from the stochastic modeling system are included, allowing for the quantification of uncertainty. Finally, data on initial sampling errors by forest successional class and forest type group are included. It is important to note that estimates by forest type group only include the twelve largest forest type groups (by area in 2020).

Keywords:

biota; climatologyMeteorologyAtmosphere; economy; environment; Climate change; Ecology, Ecosystems, & Environment; Environment and People; Fire; Forest & Plant Health; Inventory, Monitoring, & Analysis; Natural Resource Management & Use; mature forest; old-growth forest; Resources Planning Act Assessment; RPA Assessment; Forest Inventory and Analysis; conterminous United States

Related publications:

• Costanza, Jennifer K.; Walker, David M.; Potter, Kevin M.; Koch, Frank H.; Gray, Andrew N.; Coulston, John W. 2025. Old growth forest area projected to increase on United States federal lands under alternative future scenario. Earth's Future. [accepted].

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