Title:

Current and potential future distributions of 85 pest species affecting trees in North America

Author(s):

Clipp, Hannah L.; Prasad, Anantha M.; Peters, Matthew P.; Matthews, Stephen N.; Gougherty, Andrew V.

Publication Year:

2026

How to Cite:

These data were collected using funding from the U.S. Government and can be used without additional permissions or fees. If you use these data in a publication, presentation, or other research product please use the following citation:

Clipp, Hannah L.; Prasad, Anantha M.; Peters, Matthew P.; Matthews, Stephen N.; Gougherty, Andrew V. 2026. Current and potential future distributions of 85 pest species affecting trees in North America. Fort Collins, CO: Forest Service Research Data Archive. https://doi.org/10.2737/RDS-2026-0035

Abstract:

Habitat suitability models were created for 85 pest species that negatively impact tree species across the USA and Canada. Each model was produced as an ensemble of species distribution models that associated the occurrence of pest species with climate factors, topographical characteristics, host tree abundance, and, for non-native pest species, a dispersal metric capturing their spatiotemporal spread from their origin site in North America. Pest species occurrences from 1991-2025 were gathered from multiple online sources, including the USDA Forest Service, Forest Inventory and Analysis program; USDA Forest Service Forest, Insect and Disease Survey database; Global Biodiversity Information Facility; Canadian Forest Service Forest Invasive Alien Species; and numerous regional surveys. This data publication includes raster and image files of current projected distributions (1991-2020) of 85 pest species, as well as projected distributions that incorporate future climate scenarios (2070-2100) corresponding to high and low greenhouse gas emissions and future tree distribution scenarios in which trees do or do not migrate in response to future climate change. Each map is presented as both a probability surface (ranging from 0 to 1000) and a binary classification (0 and 1).

Keywords:

biota; climatologyMeteorologyAtmosphere; Climate change; Climate change effects; Ecology, Ecosystems, & Environment; Forest & Plant Health; Climate effects; Insects; Pest management; Plant diseases; Natural Resource Management & Use; Forest management; North America; Canada; Mexico; United States

Related publications:

• Clipp, Hannah L.; Prasad, Anantha M.; Peters, Matthew P.; Matthews, Stephen N.; Gougherty, Andrew V. 2026. Tree pests rarely fill the geographical ranges of their host species, but host range filling may increase with future climate change. Global Ecology and Biogeography. [In press].
• Government of Ontario. 2023. Forest disease damage event. Ontario GeoHub. https://geohub.lio.gov.on.ca/datasets/lio::forest-disease-damage-event/about
• The Global Biodiversity Information Facility. 2025. Tree pests. GBIF.org. Filtered export of GBIF occurrence data. https://doi.org/10.15468/DD.XRKJQB
• More (9 total)

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