Title:

Future projections of impervious cover for the conterminous United States by county and HUC-12 watershed

Author(s):

Costanza, Jennifer K.; Caldwell, Peter V.; Mihiar, Christopher M.; Sun, Ge; Coulston, John W.

Publication Year:

2026

How to Cite:

These data were collected using funding from the U.S. Government and can be used without additional permissions or fees. If you use these data in a publication, presentation, or other research product please use the following citation:

Costanza, Jennifer K.; Caldwell, Peter V.; Mihiar, Christopher M.; Sun, Ge; Coulston, John W. 2026. Future projections of impervious cover for the conterminous United States by county and HUC-12 watershed. Fort Collins, CO: Forest Service Research Data Archive. https://doi.org/10.2737/RDS-2026-0059

Abstract:

The expansion of impervious surfaces within developed lands can degrade water quality, increase runoff, and impact aquatic ecosystems. We modeled and projected the impervious fraction within developed lands (hereafter "impervious cover") across the conterminous United States under integrated climate and socioeconomic scenarios from 2020-2070. The data in this package are provided as comma-separated values files containing impervious cover values by county and small watershed, respectively. Each contains observed values and projections for decadal time steps from 2020 to 2070 of impervious cover. We provide projections for 20 futures, which are four scenarios of socioeconomic change and radiative forcing, along with five general circulation models (GCMs). The 20 futures are the same ones used in the 2020 Resources Planning Act (RPA) Assessment. The scenarios of socioeconomic change and radiative forcing are combinations of IPCC representative concentration pathways (RCPs) and shared socioeconomic pathways (SSPs) as follows: RCP8.5-SSP3 (high warming-low growth), RCP8.5-SSP2 (high warming-moderate growth), RCP8.5-SSP5 (high warming-high growth), and RSP4.5-SSP1 (low warming-moderate growth). The GCMs used were: HadGEM2-ES365, MRI-CGCM3, CNRM-CM5, IPSL-CM5A-MR, and NorESM1-M. The projections of impervious surface were used in the Southern Forest Outlook (SFO) Water Issue. These data can be used by scientists, watershed and land-use planners, water resource managers, and others to assess future risks to our nation's resources.

Keywords:

environment; inlandWaters; society; Environment and People; Urban natural resources management; Ecology, Ecosystems, & Environment; Hydrology, watersheds, sedimentation; Landscape ecology; Natural Resource Management & Use; Water; impervious cover; Resources Planning Act Assessment; RPA Assessment; Shared Socioeconomic Pathway; conterminous United States

Related publications:

• Costanza, Jennifer K.; Caldwell, Peter V.; Mihiar, Christopher M.; Sun, Ge; Coulston, John W. Unknown. Future scenarios project expansion of impervious cover in the U.S. and additional watersheds at risk. Earth's Future. [In review].
• Caldwell, Peter V.; Vose, James M.; Costanza, Jennifer K.; Holmes, Tom P.; Locaby, B. Graeme; Moore, Georgianne W.; Sun, Ge. 2024. Water: An Analysis to Support the Southern Forest Outlook. General Technical Report. SRS-276. Asheville, NC: U.S. Department of Agriculture, Forest Service, Southern Research Station. 60 p.; https://doi.org/10.2737/SRS-GTR-276.

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