Osage-orange (Maclura pomifera)
Model Reliability: Medium
| GCM SCENARIO | % Area Occ | Ave IV | Sum IV | Future/Current IV |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | 3.4 | 11.9 | 11996 | N/A |
| RFimp | 4.8 | 5.9 | 8278 | 0.69 |
| CCSM45 | 7.6 | 4.7 | 10512 | 1.27 |
| CCSM85 | 11.4 | 4.7 | 15845 | 1.91 |
| GFDL45 | 13.4 | 5.2 | 20322 | 2.45 |
| GFDL85 | 17.7 | 5.2 | 27124 | 3.28 |
| HAD45 | 11.8 | 5 | 17266 | 2.09 |
| HAD85 | 19.4 | 4.7 | 26979 | 3.26 |
| GCM45 | 14.2 | 3.8 | 16034 | 1.94 |
| GCM85 | 22.3 | 3.6 | 23321 | 2.82 |
Regional Summary Tree Tables
Summaries for tree species are available for a variety of geographies, in both PDF and Excel format. These summaries are based on Version 4 of the Climate Change Tree Atlas
Interpretation Guide
Osage orange is an odd species in that it was planted heavily for natural hedges, and has now become naturalized across much of the central latitudes of the eastern US (5.8% of area), even though Little only mapped its range in a small section of Texas-Oklahoma. Its medium reliable model shows an increase of suitable habitat northward, especially under high emissions (though still classed as 'No change') in the central latitudes. However, the SHIFT model limits those northern locations from being naturally colonized within 100 years, though a fairly large northward expansion has some possibility. Because of its high adaptability and commonness, it scores a good for its capacity to cope with a changing climate, and SHIFT also classes it as a highly suitable species for planting, if desired.
Family: Moraceae
Guild: opportunistic, dispersal limited (large-seeded)
Functional Lifeform: small deciduous tree
| 6.3 | 2.32 |
| 0.33 |  |
MODFACs
What traits will impact Osage-orange's ability to adapt to climate change, and in what way?:
Primary Positive Traits
Environment habitat specificity Edaphic specificity