Title:

Mid-21st century simulated burn probability projections for moist temperate forests of the Pacific Northwest

Author(s):

Dye, Alex W.; Reilly, Matthew J.; McEvoy, Andy; Lemons, Rebecca E.; Riley, Karin L.; Kim, John B.; Kerns, Becky K.

Publication Year:

2024

How to Cite:

These data were collected using funding from the U.S. Government and can be used without additional permissions or fees. If you use these data in a publication, presentation, or other research product please use the following citation:

Dye, Alex W.; Reilly, Matthew J.; McEvoy, Andy; Lemons, Rebecca E.; Riley, Karin L.; Kim, John B.; Kerns, Becky K. 2024. Mid-21st century simulated burn probability projections for moist temperate forests of the Pacific Northwest. Fort Collins, CO: Forest Service Research Data Archive. https://doi.org/10.2737/RDS-2023-0061

Abstract:

Spatial wildfire simulations were conducted for the Westside forests of the Pacific Northwest using the "Large-Fire Simulator", FSim, to study potential changes in fire regimes between a contemporary baseline simulation period (1992-2020), and a projected mid-21st century simulation period (2035-2064) based on projected climate change derived from 12 different global climate models (GCMs). Outputs include 270 meter resolution rasters of burn probability (annual chance of a pixel burning), individually for each of 5 Westside pyromes: Olympics and Puget Lowlands; Washington North Cascades; Washington West Cascades; Oregon West Cascades; and Oregon Coast Range. FSim generates tens of thousands of hypothetical fire years (January 1 - December 31) using daily weather generation, fire growth, and fire suppression algorithms to model fire occurrence and spread. Contemporary baseline (1992-2020) FSim runs were conducted using observed weather records from a Remote Automatic Weather Stations (RAWS) in each pyrome over the 1992-2020 period, and future mid-21st century weather was drawn from 12 individual GCM projections of future climate for each pyrome.

Keywords:

geoscientificInformation; environment; climatologyMeteorologyAtmosphere; Climate change; Climate change effects; Ecology, Ecosystems, & Environment; Ecology; Geography; Landscape ecology; Fire; Fire ecology; Fire effects on environment; fire modeling; FSim; burn probability; moist temperate forests; Oregon; Washington; Pacific Northwest; Westside

Related publications:

• Dye, Alex W.; Reilly, Matthew J.; McEvoy, Andy; Lemons, Rebecca E.; Riley, Karin L.; Kim, John B.; Kerns, Becky K. 2024. Simulated future shifts in wildfire regimes in moist forests of Pacific Northwest, USA. Journal of Geophysical Research: Biogeosciences. 129: e2023JG007722. https://doi.org/10.1029/2023JG007722 https://research.fs.usda.gov/treesearch/67587

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