At 4 a.m., downtown Bozeman has six inches of snow on the ground as Avalanche Forecaster Dave Zinn walks into the Custer-Gallatin National Forest supervisor’s office while snowplows clear empty parking lots. In the mountains, 27 inches of snow have already fallen, and more is on the way. The day before, Dave and another forecaster skied nine miles into the northern Gallatin Range, collecting data that indicated a snowpack near its breaking point.

Stomping snow off his boots, Dave enters his office, and the race is on. His job is to create an accurate, easy-to-understand avalanche forecast for an audience that includes the public, outfitter guides, and other Forest Service personnel. He must digest a mountain of data from weather models, remote weather stations, and professional and public field reports and then determine if he should issue an avalanche warning. His work must be complete by 7 a.m., when about 7,000 community members in Montana and Idaho will read the forecast as they’ve done for the last 35 years.

Avalanche centers like the one on the Custer-Gallatin provide daily safety messaging so that backcountry users can make informed decisions in the mountains. Other Forest Service field personnel, search and rescue teams, ski area personnel, and transportation departments depend on these services. Nationally, the Forest Service employs about 75 avalanche forecasters who track conditions and provide actionable information about each day’s avalanche danger. These forecasters are supported by a staff of three at the National Avalanche Center.

During the winter of 2024/2025, avalanche centers and their partners published over 17,000 nationwide forecasts, including 1,100 on the Custer-Gallatin National Forest. Nationally, these forecasts and their derivatives were viewed tens of millions of times. Access to this information is saving lives. Despite explosive growth in backcountry usage over the last 30 years, the number of people killed in avalanches has slightly decreased.

This trend has certainly played out on the Custer-Gallatin. The mountains near Cooke City, Montana, used to be the deadliest place in the country for avalanches. After targeted work and outreach from the avalanche center, the number of accidents and fatalities in the area has dropped significantly. In this rural area, success comes from strong partnerships between the forest, the nonprofit Friends of the Avalanche Center, Montana State Parks, and local clubs and businesses.

Back in Bozeman, Dave determines the avalanche danger is high across large parts of the forecast area, meaning a strong likelihood of avalanches crashing down on unsuspecting people. He issues an avalanche warning, shares it with the National Weather Service office, and sends an email and posts to the website and social media. In Cooke City, Dave knows that hotels, restaurants, and gas stations will receive the warning. Most of them know Dave and the other avalanche forecasters personally and will share the warning with their customers face-to-face.  

Dave and the other forecasters work closely with search and rescue teams and have seen firsthand the tragic consequences of avalanches. Each forecast and each workday is a personal effort to improve public safety and reduce the impacts of avalanches on local communities. It takes years of work to build rapport and trust in small rural communities, but the payoff is that loved ones come home safely to their families.

This winter, and in future winters, Dave and all the forecasters will ensure that up-to-date avalanche information is found at avalanche.org.