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New science helps predict smoke movement, quantifies impacts to health

October 20, 2022

Firefighters monitor smoke & fire movement from a distance. One looking through binoculars and one studies a map.
Firefighter lookouts monitor fire and smoke movement on the Mendocino National Forest, California. USDA Forest Service photo by Cecilio Ricardo.

WASHINGTON, DC—A new Forest Service book, Wildland Fire Smoke in the United States: A Scientific Assessment, combines research on wildland fire smoke and highlights knowledge gaps for future research. The book provides a foundation for improving how wildland fire smoke can be managed in the coming decades and was used in the development of the agency’s National Prescribed Fire Program Review.

“This book provides a foundation for understanding the production of smoke, primarily from wildland fires,” said Toral Patel-Weynand, southern research station director and former national director of sustainable forest management research. “This knowledge is increasingly important as a warmer climate is contributing to more fires and more smoke exposure.”

The book’s key findings include:

  • Tools to help predict smoke concentrations for wildland fires and enhance our ability to predict the direction of smoke plumes and the areas expected to experience elevated smoke concentrations.
  • Fuels estimates make it easier to plan effective managed burns and mitigate smoke from wildland fires.
  • Lab and field work on the composition of smoke have identified more than 500 different gases and improved our understanding of smoke chemistry and advancing future research.
  • Emission inventories from wildland fire improve the smoke forecasting systems used by public health officials, air quality forecasters and fire management teams.
  • Economic losses associated with the health impacts of wildfire smoke estimated as ranging from $88 billion to $142 billion per year.

The book also explores the social implications of wildland fire smoke, including public health and economic impacts. It features a survey of current management and regulatory issues related to smoke management, as well as anticipated issues that may arise with intensifying wildfire seasons or future prescribed fire programs.

The book’s authors recommend that further research be conducted to improve our understanding of the effects of different prescribed burn techniques on smoke chemistry. Additional research could also inform how fuel burning can affect smoke emissions and associated health impacts, the economic impacts of smoke, the effectiveness of protective actions in reducing smoke exposure, and potential differences in exposure and health impacts for prescribed fire smoke versus wildfire smoke.